Tropical Storm Nock-Ten has moved out to PAR...another cyclone is about to enter PAR, Tropical Storm 11W

Issued:  07/28/2011  12 P.M. PhST

              Tropical Storm Nock-Ten has moved out from the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)..heading towards Hainan Island. Latest satellite image shows consolidating central convection around the Low Level Circulation center (LLCC) with increased convection found on the south of the system. Nock-Ten is expected to move W-WNW within the next 24-48 hours and re-intensify while on the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) because of the following factors: very warm sea surface temperatures and increasingly favorable upper level environment. 

           While another storm is expected to enter the PAR later this afternoon and will then named by PAGASA as Tropical Storm "Kabayan". Latest satellite imagery depicts increasing deep convection near the LLCC along with improved upper level outflow. This system is expected to move WNW during the next 24-48 hours heading towards the Northern Philippine Sea. Intensification is possible within the next 48-36 hours due to favorable environmental conditions. Numerical weather guidance models run this system moving towards the Southern Japan and will not affect any parts of the country.

              Because of this development, Kabayan is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains and thunderstorms over the western sections of the archipelago as it moves closer.

                               

Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (Juaning/10W)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale	Tropical Storm
Location	18.1N 115.5E
Distance	574.12 km. WNW of Manila
Maximum Sustained Winds	93 kph
Gustiness Winds	120 kph
Movement	Westward @ 30 kph
Towards	Hainan Island
Maximum Sea Wave Height	13 feet
Minimum Sea Level Pressure	985 mb

Tropical Storm 11W (Pre-Kabayan)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale	Tropical Storm
Location	13.3N 136.6E
Distance	842.66 km. West of Andersen AFB, Guam
Maximum Sustained Winds	65 kph
Gustiness Winds	83 kph
Movement	WNW @ 26 kph
Towards	Philippine Sea
Maximum Sea Wave Height	13 feet
Minimum Sea Level Pressure	1002 mb