Sabado, Hulyo 2, 2011

Tropical Disturbance 94W slowly organizing near Palau...might become the next TC in the coming days...95W develops over Palawan

As of this time, there are two Low Pressure Areas closely monitored over the Western Pacific. One is 94W which is curently embedded in the active Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the second one, 95W near Palawan. Listed below are the Tropical Analysis of both active disturbance in Northwestern Pacific Region.





Tropical Disturbance 94W
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale
Tropical Disturbance
Location
7.2N 134.5E
Distance
46.3296 km East-Southeast of Palau
Maximum Sustained Winds
28  kph
Gustiness Winds
37  kph
Movement
Quasi-Stationary
Towards
Palau-Philippine Sea
Maximum Sea Wave Height
no available data yet
Minimum Sea Level Pressure
1007 mb












Latest satellite imagery depicts a developing low-level circulation center with a deep convection on the center.Because of this disturbance, light to moderate rains with thunderstorms  continues to affect Western Micronesia especially Palau and Yap region.

Numerical weather guidance models such as ECMWF and CMC  forecasts this system to develop into an active cyclone within the next two days. Latest models show that it will tracks NW-WNW heading towards Northern Philippine Sea-Southern Japan area.

Tropical Disturbance 95W
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale
Tropical Disturbance
Location
9.1N 120.8E
Distance
near Southwest of Palawan
Maximum Sustained Winds
28 kph
Gustiness Winds
37 kph
Movement
moving northwestward
Towards
towards Western Philippine Sea-Vietnam
Maximum Sea Wave Height
no available data yet
Minimum Sea Level Pressure
1010 mb












Based on the latest models and observations, Tropical Disturbance 95W is not expected to strengthen or gather more strength. However, this disturbance is expected to bring scattered rains and thunderstorms across Western Visayas-Palawan area.

WEATHER ANALYSIS & OBSERVATION IN THE PHILIPPINES:

Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is still the dominant weather disturbance to affect the country. This disturbance is expected to bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. While moderate to widespread rains is expected to affect Palawan and Eastern Mindanao which may trigger flash floods and landslides

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